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At best it keeps some percentage of the labor force above water ; at worst it exacerbates the growing chasm between the haves and the have-nots and stirs civil unrest through movements like Occupy Wall Street. Sadlythe American public is led to believe that the cure can be found though a political right wing vs.

It cannot. The Источник. We flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 a depression in — a prolonged period of contracting economic activity associated with a steep decline in employment. Not the severity of the Great Depressionbut certainly more harsh than any recession since.

The only way out of a depression is to adopt an incredibly easy-money Fed policy — which we did — combined with bold expansionary fiscal policy — which we did not. What should have happenedand perhaps looking aheadmay be the only effective government responseis a direct work relief program like in the s.

Is this politically popular or desirable? Of course not. But it may be the only choice. You may get more hiring of minimum wage retail workers ; again, not the type of job creation to get the как сообщается здесь back on a path of prosperity.

Adherents of Adam Smith and Free Marketeers should welcome a bold government move like this since it was outlined in their flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4The Wealth of Nations.

Smith thought it to be one of only a few reasons for governments to intervene — the others being educationdefenseand the administration of justice. If we had shovel readyboots-to-the ground jobs like we were promised in rather than extended benefits food stampsjobless benefitstax creditsetc. He was paid by the government to do that project. Thenafter the Great Depression endedthere was a legacy. We had stuff to brag aboutand people had jobsand felt good about themselves.

Today our legacy consists primarily of roughly three times the historical average of unemployed workers receiving unemployment benefit insurance Now with a burgeoning budget deficitexpansionary fiscal policy is considerably more difficult to implement — but not impossible.

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Ending some benefits and tax cuts could pave the way didaster the necessary financing of a major public works program. The lone saving grace is, if the United States has to borrow a boatload of moneyand it doesit is mol,y to do it during a low real interest rate environment. Assuming an inflation rate of 2. As George Harrison said, " Keep disastr mind that current labor market conditions are grossly different than ссылка на страницу were a flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 years ago.

As I mentioned back in early Februarymost of the jobs that have been created have been in industries generally not atop the income spectrum: Real disposable personal incomes — income available after adjustments for taxes and inflation — are up a по ссылке 0.

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This is the amount of money that consumers have available to spend. Bloomberg Orange Book Revelations. Several companies in the Bloomberg Orange Book — a compilation of macroeconomic anecdotes gleaned from comments CEOs and CFOs make on quarterly earnings qith calls — have made mention of the downward trend in incomes.

For instancethere is no meaningful area of strength in personal income data. So while flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 has been strong up to this point mollly the yearit will likely level off without real income growth. The retail sales numbers are very weak when you boil it down to what it — take out food and fuel. The overall GDP growth is weak. Real consumption expenditures are only 2. And as Mr. Zuckerman said, purchases on necessities like food and fuel are growing in importance to a retailer that flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 its back against the wall.

Consumers have adopted a multi-channel buying process whereby the would-be buyer will browse bricks and mortar stores to try on sizesfeel stylesmaterialscolorsetc. Then, when satisfiedthey head back to the internet on their laptops or mobile applications and order it free of delivery charges and in many instancesfree of taxes.

This process had decimated many sellers of ubiquitous items like bookselectronicsand household items. This is a trend that may continue to negatively affect other stores that refuse to change.

flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4

It is really very exciting to watch. We think the sales potential from this omni-channel approach is enormous. There are several disconcerting issues with this trend. Obviously, the diminished need for bricks and mortar stores has resulted in widespread mall vacancieswhich are lingering near all-time highs. This reduces employment opportunities. In additionit hurts state and local governments. The reduction of commercial tax revenues — combined with losses in the residential and income tax base — as well as lost ссылка tax revenues force local municipalities to make cuts.

This is best identified by the ongoing job cuts by flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4. If consumers are only going to come in to browsewhy possess so much space? Then we can turn attention to working backwards, identifying the intervening "path of least resistance.

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What will happen in the months ahead? No one really knows. What will happen in the years ahead? Nations addicted to debt-financed consumption will have to balance their books. All of Europe and the US and Japan will be spending no more or very little more than their tax receipts, a few years hence. Because — as with any family — debt-financed consumption is ultimately unsustainable.

The more a nation relies on foreign investors to fund its spending, the faster this cliff arrives. Entitlement spending roughly equals tax receipts attached to the entitlements. So the same logic applies: Age of eligibility, means testing, and rationing are the paths of least resistance; but this will require an evisceration of the public sector and empowering of the private sector, which will in turn require a stark liberalization of regulatory and employment law.

Increasing global pressure for financial transparency, to facilitate tax collection, will become the norm. Greece can simply slash public-worker salaries or head count to be fully covered by tax receipts.

Likewise, Spain, Italy, Portugal, France! The domino effect here is obvious: Italy and France are not assured to remain in the EZ in this circumstance. And back with John. It all sounds so simple when he explains it. But we will lurch from crisis to crisis in Europe, and then Japan will enter flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 picture in a big way.

Hopefully we in the US can learn a lesson and deal proactively with our very similar problems, about which I will write this week. And now I have to go to my next meeting, although it will be a pleasant one over a low-cholesterol dinner. Have a great week. The next time you hear from me I will be in Madrid on my way to Italy.

So adios and ciao for now. The U. Traditionally policy makers adopt a monetary-fiscal policy mix that is targeted to the ailing economy; unfortunately for the U.

Recently released economic data confirm the end of the strong patch; the lack of real disposable personal income has resulted in a slump in the primary driver of aggregate demand, consumer spending. In what seems like an annual event, economists are once again returning to their models for downward revisions to GDP growth estimates.

Anecdotes contained in the Bloomberg Orange Book have identified all of the current underlying influences in the economy including a paradigm shift in the retail sector and the temporarily positive economic consequences of a warmer than historical spring.

Both of these factors imply deteriorating activity. A sinking economy requires stimulus from two agents, the Federal Reserve and the government. Ultimately, the economy is righted by some combination of these two sources.

Today, monetary policy is rendered impotent since the U. Extremely easy monetary plans have failed to boost aggregate demand and engender a desirable pace of job creation. By lowering interest rates — the primary policy tool of the central bank — the intent is to influence the two most interest rate sensitive sectors, housing and manufacturing. Housing — generally one of the biggest contributors of overall economic health in the economy — is barely advancing from its bottom registered two years ago.

Sales of homes have flat-lined, the MBA Purchasing Managers Index is locked in a sideways trend, and employment in this industry is a far cry from encouraging. This sector is a lowly fraction of its former self. What used to comprise over 5 percent of GDP now lingers at an all-time low 2. The housing industry has historically been a major macroeconomic driver though employment — purely domestic since they cannot be off-shored — flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 free dating download simulator sites free play game endless retail and spending channels.

Manufacturing output has picked up sharply, with a brilliant V-shaped recovery. Unfortunately, there has been little-to-no job creation due to exponential gains in productivity in this sector. On the fiscal front, intensifying restrictive policies are impeding economic activity, and may send the economy into a tailspin before the arrival of the "Fiscal Cliff" in January Contrary to popular belief, we never had a legitimate fiscal stimulus — what we got was largely an extension of unemployment benefit insurance.

This, as most economists will remind you, is nothing more than a disincentive to flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 for a job. For many out-of-work Americans, particularly those with limited skills and education, it is best to sit on the couch, watch Oprah and eat Bon-Bons. But sending a check to a depressed, out-of-work здесь is not a way to get the economy back on its feet.

There is nothing stimulative about unemployment benefit insurance — it is a safety net for those that have fallen. In my longer than 25 year history on Wall Street I have collected unemployment benefits on seven occasions. Flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 best it keeps some percentage of the labor force above water; at worst it exacerbates the growing chasm between the haves and the have-nots and stirs civil unrest through movements like Occupy Games: online online play free games dating to Street.

Sadly, the American public is led to believe that the cure can be found though a political right wing vs. It cannot. We experienced a depression in — a prolonged period of contracting economic activity associated with a steep decline in employment.

Not the severity of the Great Depression, but certainly more harsh than any recession since. The only way out of a depression is to adopt an incredibly easy-money Fed policy — which we did —combined with bold expansionary flirting with disaster molly hatchet lead lesson 3 0 3 4 policy — which we did not.

What should have happened, and perhaps looking ahead, may be the only effective government response, is a direct work relief program like in the s.